Extreme caution in the Red Sea
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Shipping companies expressed caution about any rapid return to the Red Sea route, after the Yemen-based Houthis indicated they had stopped attacks on commercial ships.
The giant container company A.P. said: Moller-Maersk A/S and tanker company Hafnia Ltd. They are still monitoring the situation. Marine risk company Embry said that the Houthis' actions will continue while Israeli military forces operate inside the Gaza Strip.
The targeting of ships by the Iran-backed group has led to them being rerouted around South Africa, adding thousands of miles to journeys, which increases costs and carbon emissions.
According to Bloomberg, any mass resumption of traffic through the Red Sea - which has not stopped completely - will be important for both shipping companies and commodity markets. On Thursday, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said the group would follow the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, signaling a halt to its campaign.
Ambry estimates that the second phase of the ceasefire - more than a month away - is likely to provide grounds for the Houthis to formally end attacks against Israeli, US and British merchant fleets.
Jacob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at marine trade group BIMCO, said: “We may see some ships resuming crossing the Red Sea in the coming weeks.”
He added, "But it will take fairly strong indicators of the stability of the ceasefire before shipping in general resumes transit to pre-conflict levels. Container lines may take a little longer."
Maersk said it will return to the Red Sea and sail through the notorious Bab al-Mandab Strait when it is safe to do so, adding that it is still too early to predict the timing.
Monroe Anderson, operations director at war risk and marine insurance company Vessel Protect, said: “This remains an extremely complex and volatile area where the idea that threat levels to ships and their crews will decrease significantly in the near term is unrealistic.”
He added: “For there to be any tangible impact on maritime risk rates, we first need to see an independent announcement from the Houthis that they have halted all operations against commercial shipping within the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.”
The Houthi attacks on commercial ships included seizing the ship Galaxy Leader, hitting an oil tanker with a missile, and causing a major fire.